Former Polish Deputy Prime Minister: "China's Economic System is Effective, While the West Keeps Waiting for Its 'Collapse'"

[Introduction]

In the last century, many Soviet-style socialist countries eventually collapsed, primarily due to sluggish economic growth, marked by severe material shortages and rampant inflation. China, learning from the failures of these nations, pursued a unique and gradual reform path. This approach allowed the coexistence of multiple ownership systems and combined market forces with state macroeconomic controls, thus avoiding prolonged stagnation and hyperinflation.

Despite relentless smear campaigns by anti-China forces in the West, the reality is that China's economic system and policies are effective. They have not only improved the living conditions of the Chinese people but also positively impacted the global economy.

A Vision for the Future

By the mid-21st century, the centenary of the People's Republic of China's founding, China aims to become a “prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful socialist modernized country.” Currently, Chinese leaders and elites are shaping a bright future for the nation. Meanwhile, in the West, some politicians and so-called “experts” are preoccupied with one question: when will the governance system of this “Middle Kingdom” collapse?

These critics focus more on China's political characteristics than its economic achievements, failing to grasp the essence of the issue.

The Chinese people's acceptance of their current political system stems from their satisfaction with economic progress and improved living standards. In this year's World Happiness Report, China's ranking was comparable to Japan and South Korea and significantly higher than other BRICS nations like Iran, Russia, South Africa, and Egypt. In some areas, it even far surpassed them—especially in comparison with India. Beyond developing countries, China's performance also exceeded that of many nations with higher per capita GDP. For instance, the rankings show that Chinese citizens are happier than those in some EU member states, such as Croatia, Greece, and Bulgaria.

Learning from History

On the 75th anniversary of the PRC, The Economist published an article discussing how contemporary Chinese leaders reflect on the lessons of the Soviet Union's collapse. However, I believe that China has already drawn many lessons from Eastern Europe's former socialist countries and reached the correct conclusions.

The prevailing Western view is that Soviet-style socialist countries collapsed due to a lack of democracy. In truth, their downfall was primarily driven by economic stagnation, most visibly in the form of acute material shortages and rampant inflation. These dual issues severely hindered production efficiency and constrained household consumption growth.

China, on the other hand, undertook profound economic reforms that allowed entrepreneurs to profit, leading to wage increases.

Many centrally planned economies ultimately collapsed due to inflation. While these regimes forcibly suppressed price hikes through political decisions, concealing inflationary pressures, such measures defied market logic—akin to an ostrich burying its head in the sand. Worse still, erratic reforms and insufficient market openness led to scarcity and rising prices. I call this phenomenon "shortage inflation syndrome," where goods become increasingly expensive but are not always readily available.

The Chinese Experience

In contrast, China's gradual reforms and prudent policies helped it escape the nightmare of a shortage economy, avoiding prolonged recessions and hyperinflation. The elimination of shortages progressed in tandem with economic growth, while inflation associated with price liberalization remained low over the long term. From 1990 to 1993, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased from 3.1% to 14.7%, while GDP growth accelerated from 3.8% to 14.2%.

Eastern Europe's former socialist countries largely failed in their systemic reforms, whereas China succeeded. Most countries today follow either state socialism with soft budget constraints or liberal capitalism with hard constraints. However, China's political and economic system is fundamentally different.

China's system is a hybrid, where multiple forms of ownership coexist and the “invisible hand” of the market is combined with the “visible hand” of state regulation. Crucially, this fusion is accompanied by a professionalization of economic management. Practice has proven that this system and its policies are effective.

Western Misinterpretations and the Reality of China's Success

China's economic success has deeply unsettled the West, particularly anti-China forces in the United States. They have fiercely criticized China, even manipulating statistics by using price factors to undermine its achievements. They claim that “China's GDP has been declining relative to the US, dropping from about 75% of the US level in 2021 to 65% today” (The Economist, October 19).

In reality, when calculated using constant prices, the GDP ratio between China and the US has remained stable or even increased over these years, as China's growth rate has consistently outpaced that of the US. In the long term, this ratio has risen from approximately 11% in 1960 to 66% in 2024. Furthermore, since 2016, China’s GDP measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) has surpassed that of the US and is now 26.6% higher.

China’s economic development path should be lauded rather than criticized. It has not only improved the lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese people but also contributed significantly to the development of other regions worldwide.

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波兰前副总理：中国经济体制行之有效，西方还在期待它“何时崩溃”

【导读】上世纪许多苏联式社会主义国家最终走向崩溃，主要原因是经济发展乏力，突出表现为物资短缺和通货膨胀。中国总结了这些国家的失败教训，通过渐进式改革走出了一条独具特色的正确道路。它允许多种所有制并存，将市场和国家宏观调控的力量结合起来，避免了长期衰退和恶性通胀。尽管美西方反华势力极力抹黑中国，但事实上中国的经济体制和政策是行之有效的，不仅改善了中国人民的生活条件，也对世界经济产生了拉动效应。

到本世纪中叶，中华人民共和国成立100周年时，中国将成为一个“富强民主文明和谐美丽的社会主义现代化强国”。现在中国的领导人和社会各界精英正在为这个国家勾勒光明未来，而在西方，一些政治客和所谓的“专家”最关心的问题却是：这个“中央王国”的统治制度何时会崩溃？他们对中国政治特征的关注多于对其经济特征的关注，但却忽视了问题的本质。

中国人民之所以接受了现在的国家制度，是因为他们对经济进步和生活水平的提高感到满意。在今年的《世界幸福报告》中，中国的排名与日本和韩国相差不达，比伊朗、俄罗斯、南非和埃及等其他金砖国家的排名要高——在某些方面甚至要高得多（比如和印度相比）。除了这些发展中国家之外，中国的表现还优于很多人均GDP更高的国家。比如，排名显示，中国人比克罗地亚、希腊和保加利亚等一些欧盟国家的公民更幸福。

在中华人民共和国成立75周年之际，《经济学人》杂志上刊登了一篇文章，讨论的是当代中国领导人如何反思苏联解体教训。但我认为，中国从东欧前社会主义国家那里已经吸取了很多教训，并且已经得出了正确的结论。西方国家的主流观点是，当年一众苏联式社会主义国家之所以倒台，是因为它们缺乏民主，但事实真相并非如此——真正原因是这些国家经济发展乏力，最突出的表现就是严重的物资短缺和通货膨胀。这两者同时存在非常要命，严重影响了企业的生产效率，限制了家庭消费增长的规模。

与此同时，中国则对其经济体制进行了深刻的改革，允许企业家盈利，这也让人们的工资有所提升。

许多中央计划经济体制国家最终出现经济崩溃的原因是通货膨胀，只不过，这些国家通过政治决策强力抑制物价上涨，掩盖了通货膨胀。这违背了市场经济的逻辑，就像鸵鸟把头埋在沙子里一样。更糟糕的是，由于改革措施反复无常，市场开放不充分，造成商品匮乏、物价上涨。我把这种现象称为“短缺通胀综合征”：东西越来越贵，但市场上不一定总能买得到。

上世纪八九十年代苏东剧变之后，很多国家经历了后社会主义体制转型。从“短缺通胀”中复苏的过程对实体经济造成了毁灭性打击。波兰经济连续三年严重衰退，GDP下降了近20%。俄罗斯更甚，经济衰退持续了整整10年，GDP下降了一半以上。一边是生产急剧崩溃和高通胀同时出现，另一边是收入和财富的深度再分配，由此引发了一系列政治后果。

只有中国，凭借渐进式改革和审慎的政策，走出了短缺经济的噩梦，避免了长期衰退，也没有引发恶性通货膨胀。消除短缺与经济增长同步进行，而与价格自由化有关的通胀率长期维持在低位。中国消费价格指数从1990年的3.1%和1991年的3.4%上升到1992年的6.4%和1993年的14.7%，而GDP的增长率从1990年的3.8%上升到1991年的9.2%，然后加速到1992年的14.2%和1993年的14%。

东欧前社会主义国家的体制改革失败了，而中国却成功了。目前世界各国基本上要么奉行软预算约束的国家社会主义，要么奉行具有硬约束力的自由资本主义，但当代中国的政治制度与它们全都有本质的不同。中国的政治制度是一种混合体，多种形式的生产资料所有制并存，并将市场这只“看不见的手”与国家这只“看得见的手”的力量结合起来。最重要的是，这种结合伴随着经济管理中的精英化和专业化。实践证明，这一制度以及这一制度下的具体政策是行之有效的。

但中国经济的成功让西方，特别是美国的反华势力感到非常不爽。他们对中国展开激烈的批评，甚至玩起了数字游戏，利用价格因素来操弄统计数据，贬低中国的成就，声称“中国GDP近年来连续下滑，从2021年约合美国的75%下降到现在的65%”（《经济学人》10月19日报道）。

实际上，如果按照正确的计算方法，也就是按不变价格计算，中美两国GDP之比至少在这些年里没有变化，甚至有所增加，因为中国经济的增长速度一直快于美国。从长期来看，中美GDP之比从1960年的约11%上升到2024年的66%。此外，自2016年以来，以购买力平价衡量的中国GDP一直高于美国，目前已经比美国高出26.6%。

中国的经济发展之路理应令人称赞而不是忧虑，因为它不仅有助于改善亿万中国人民的生活条件，而且还促进了世界其他地区的经济发展。

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https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202411/09/WS672eb86ca310b59111da283b.html